By Chicago Times Magazine –
January 14, 2026
Speaking at the Delphi Economic Forum, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen I. Miran signaled a potential shift in the central bank’s approach to interest rates, arguing that sweeping deregulatory efforts in the United States are creating a “large positive shock” to productivity that justifies a more accommodative monetary policy.
Drawing a direct parallel between current American policy and Greece’s post-2009 recovery, Miran suggested that the economic “malaise” caused by over-regulation is being reversed. He warned that if the Federal Reserve fails to account for these supply-side improvements, it risks keeping interest rates “needlessly contractionary.”
Governor Miran opened his remarks by praising the Greek people for implementing “substantial and painful reforms” that ended a decade of economic crisis. By liberalizing product markets, easing licensing burdens, and privatizing utilities, Greece transformed its economic transmission.
“Greece has come a long way, impressing the whole world with its recovery,” Miran said, noting that Greek borrowing rates have narrowed significantly compared to Germany’s. This recovery, he argued, was made possible because the European Central Bank (ECB) effectively accommodated Greece’s structural reforms with supportive monetary policy—a path he believes the United States should now follow.
A central theme of Miran’s address was the difficulty of quantifying the true cost of government oversight. He described the “lamppost problem,” where economists focus only on easily measured data like taxes, while ignoring the “infinite tax” of regulations that can prohibit entire industries from existing.
Miran introduced the concept of “markup regulations,” where compliance costs act as barriers to entry. In the U.S. housing market, for example, he noted that the barriers to building have become so burdensome that many builders are exiting major metro areas entirely. “One pebble doesn’t stop a stream,” Miran remarked, “but enough pebbles will.” He estimated that by 2030, the current administration’s “one-in-ten-out” policy could eliminate 30 percent of the regulatory restrictions in the Code of Federal Regulations.
The Governor made a sharp distinction between “cyclical growth spurts,” which can cause inflation, and “supply-side growth,” which expands the economy’s productive capacity. According to Miran, the deregulation currently underway in 2025 is a supply-side factor that allows the economy to grow faster without putting upward pressure on prices.
Citing recent research, Miran projected that the planned reduction in the regulatory code could result in a 3 percent cumulative drag on consumer prices through 2030—roughly half a percent per year. This deflationary pressure, he argued, provides a clear rationale for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates.
Concluding his speech, Miran revealed that he has already brought these concerns to his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He argued that in recent quarters, U.S. monetary policy has been tighter than necessary because it has failed to account for the productivity gains triggered by deregulation.
